Both the Globe and Mail and National Post today had articles taking a look at the soaring stock price of ATS Automation and the reason behind it: speculation of the spinoff of its solar group.
Visitors to this blog will know that I’ve had several postings (here, here and here) over the past few months on the likelihood of ATS publicly spinning off its solar group, which includes Photowatt and Spheral Solar. Much of my own opinion has come from watching Cypress Semiconductor pursue an IPO of its SunPower unit, but also from events in Europe and my discussions with analyst MacMurray Whale at Sprott Securities, who has been way ahead of his peers on covering this issue.
The coverage today in the Globe and Post were prompted by a report from Raymond James analyst Frederic Bastien and other analysts who are catching up to Whale’s own analysis. There’s also interest because ATS’s shares have hit a 52-week high on spinoff speculation.
Not surprisingly, the Post – some of whose columnists still deny global warming is a problem — downplays the enthusiasm in solar companies and stocks, referring to their “bloated valuations” and temporary “brush with fame.”
“So what shall become of solar stocks once their latest brush with fame subsides?” asks reporter Keith Kalawsky. “The technology is environmentally friendly and might make a decent business someday, but the valuations of these stocks are prone to polluting your portfolio.”
Despite the nice play on words, I’m curious about the certainty in his comments. He goes on to compare the solar craze with the rise and fall of fuel cell stocks, but this is like comparing apples to oranges: fuel cells are still in an expensive R&D phase and nowhere near commercial reality (as my previous post shows), whereas solar is proven, is selling like gangbusters in Europe, Asia and some U.S. states, and is becoming more efficient by the day. How is a market experiencing excess demand, in an supportive policy environment where all countries are exploring renewable alternatives, a risky business destined to fall?
Kalawsky goes on: “Considering the negatives and the heady valuations of solar companies, it looks like the shorts are going to have a field day once the current obsession with alternative energy inevitably wanes.”
Obsession? Inevitably wanes? Yah, and global warming isn’t a problem, despite dramatic satellite photos of rapidly shrinking ice caps.